Abstract: Based on the meteorological and cherry yield data in Laoshan area of Qingdao from 2000 to 2016,the key meteorological factors affecting cherry yield were investigated and the cherry yield forecasting model was estimated using the operational system on agrometeorological yield forecasting(WAPFOS 2015.1.0).More specifically,based on the separated trend and meteorological yields from the cherry yield data in Laoshan area from 2000 to 2014,the trend and meteorological yield forecast model for cherry was established by using grey smoothing simulation,polynomials and stepwise regression methods and the prediction test of the model was carried out with the data from 2015 to 2016.The results show that the accuracies of the cherry yield forecast model are,on average 96.98% during 2000-2014,95.94% in 2015,and 96.80% in 2016,respectively.According to the established model,the determined key meteorological factors affecting cherry yield are the average minimum temperature in early to mid-March,the precipitations in mid-to-late March and in early April and the average minimum temperature in the middle April.Besides,the research indicates that the average minimum temperature in early to mid-March is below -5.0℃,precipitation in mid-to-late March and early April is respectively larger than 15.0 mm and less than 5.0 mm in lean year,while the average minimum temperature in early to mid-March is above -3.0℃,precipitation in mid-to-late March and early April is respectively less than 5.0 mm and larger than 15.0 mm in abundant year.

Key words: Cherry, Meteorological factors, Trend yield, Meteorological yield, Forecast